The Iranian Regime, “Weaker Than Ever Since 1979”

The Iranian Regime, “Weaker Than Ever Since 1979”

By the Editorial Staff

12/01/2025- Struan Stevenson, President of the Committee in Search of Justice (ISJ), was the guest of the FEMO in Paris on Tuesday, November 25, to meet with French parliamentarians and discuss future solutions for Iran. He then hosted a press luncheon, during which he delivered a stark assessment of the regime's situation. According to Stevenson, who was the President of the European Parliament's delegation for relations with Iraq and of the "Friends of a Free Iran" intergroup, and the author of several books*, Iran is experiencing its deepest period of fragility since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Its regional allies, from the Syrian regime to Hamas, are weakened or isolated, which reduces Tehran's strategic reach. Within the country, the economic collapse is dramatic: the rial, in constant depreciation, has lost four zeros due to sanctions that are crippling the economy; Inflation has reached extreme levels, and the electrical and water infrastructure is in a critical state. Struan Stevenson highlighted the stark contrast between the regime's elite, whose children live comfortably abroad, and the Iranian population, subjected to impoverishment and increased repression.

For him, one of the most significant changes today lies in the widespread use of social media. Young Iranians can now document the regime's violence and organize themselves, despite censorship. He believes that the conditions for a final major uprising are in place and that Europe and the United States must seize this moment to clearly support the Iranian people. This would make it possible to end the mass executions and reduce the nuclear threat, which the Islamic regime uses as a totem.

Reza Pahlavi: an alternative deemed illegitimate

Struan Stevenson also commented at length on the figure of Reza Pahlavi, son of the former Shah, to whom he dedicates numerous passages in his works. He considers it illegitimate, while recalling the autocratic regime established by his father, marked by the abuses of the SAVAK. Reza Palavi's attempts to mobilize support have been anecdotal, barely gathering a few dozen activists, and his political program would simply amount to replacing Supreme Leader Khamenei with a new authority embodied by himself. Struan Stevenson concludes that his "candidacy," on the eve of the regime's collapse, appears more like the desperate attempt of a man in disguise than a serious and legitimate option for governing the country's future.

When asked about possible solutions for Iran's future, he successively dismissed the military option, which he believes would repeat the mistakes of Iraq, as well as diplomatic negotiations, which he considers too accommodating to the regime. On the contrary, he calls for clear Western support for the democratic opposition, particularly the NCRI and the MEK, which he describes as the only organized alternative, and regrets that Europe still refuses to include the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on its list of terrorist organizations, unlike the United States, Canada, and Australia.

Jean-François Legaret's perspective: water, climate, and the health crisis

Jean-François Legaret elaborated on several points raised in Stevenson's works, as well as the current situation in Iran. He notably points out that the current water shortages are not only due to climate change but also to the deliberate destruction caused by dams and the regime's diversion of resources, leading to a lasting ecological disaster. He also noted that Iran had the highest per capita mortality rate during the COVID-19 pandemic, due to the regime's refusal to accept Western vaccines. In addition to these difficult living conditions, Jean-François Legaret highlighted the intensity of the current repression, with 1,455 executions recorded since the beginning of the year. He also put into perspective Stevenson's analysis, written before the recent "Twelve Days' War," and yet even more relevant today.

The Information War Waged by the Regime

The discussions also highlighted the vast information war waged by the Iranian regime to discredit the organized opposition. Struan Stevenson detailed the existence of a particularly structured international apparatus capable of launching perfectly coordinated campaigns within hours against any political figure expressing even minimal support for the MEK. According to him, Members of the European Parliament who sign pro-opposition statements immediately see their inboxes flooded with hundreds of messages written using the same template, demanding the immediate withdrawal of their signatures. This almost automated and clearly centralized mechanism aims as much to intimidate as to create the illusion of spontaneous popular protest.

Struan Stevenson also expressed surprise at the near-total invisibility of these campaigns in the European public sphere. He emphasized that no other regime mobilizes its diplomatic and security resources to conduct such a methodical smear campaign against an opposition movement in exile. This "ultra-propaganda," in his words, aims to maintain the idea that the opposition has neither a social base nor credibility, even as the regime devotes considerable energy to combating it.

One of the points raised during the lunch was the troubling synchronization between the publication of accusatory articles in certain Western media outlets and the release of hostages held by Tehran. This recurring timing suggests that the regime uses this content as a bargaining chip or a political signal. The regime also appears to be exploiting the lexical confusion surrounding the terms "sectarian" or "Islamist-Marxist" to influence Western public opinion. These labels, widely disseminated since the 2000s, remain entrenched despite their lack of factual basis.

Conclusion: A decisive moment for Europe

This lunch brought to light a clear consensus: the Iranian regime is going through a profound crisis, Iranian society is in a state of extreme tension, and repression has reached an unprecedented intensity. The regime appears to be making concessions on individual freedoms, particularly regarding the wearing of the veil, in order to appease the unrest and buy time before a popular uprising. Explicit support for Iranian democratic forces seems essential now to send the decisive signal to a society ready to risk its life for a political transition.

*Dictatorship and Revolution: Iran, a Contemporary History, Presses du Midi, 172 pages.

*Countdown to Collapse: Iran's Regime on the Brink, 268 pages.