"Towards the end of the Iranian theocratic regime? A historic turning point in the Middle East."

By Ella Kelian

As the world's attention turns once again to Iran, a major shift appears to be looming in the Middle East region. Militarily weakened, diplomatically isolated, and challenged from within, the Iranian regime led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appears more vulnerable than ever. Perhaps the time has come for the international community to shift its focus from external solutions to the Iranian people. Such a solution would involve concrete support for a democratic alternative to an increasingly contested power.

The Failure of a Regional Strategy:

The open confrontation between Iran and Israel, particularly after the attacks of October 7, 2023, has revealed the limitations of Iran's strategy based on expanding its influence through allied armed groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. These forces suffered heavy military and political losses following the Israeli response, highlighting Tehran's growing isolation.

A Deep Domestic Crisis:

Within the country, the Iranian population is bearing the brunt of corruption, economic mismanagement, and repression. Faced with deteriorating living conditions, the climate of protest is intensifying. In response, the regime is strengthening its repressive policies while carrying out internal purges, a sign of growing tensions within the state apparatus itself.

Ali Khamenei, in power for 36 years, is seeing his authority weakened. His ambivalent stance on nuclear issues—mixing radical pronouncements with secret negotiations—is tarnishing his image among his supporters. Moreover, the loss of the Syrian regime, a key ally, represents yet another diplomatic setback for Tehran, whose regional influence is waning.

Growing International Support for the Opposition:

Faced with this weakening of the regime, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), led by Maryam Rajavi, is gaining visibility on the international stage. Last January, a major meeting took place in Paris, while the European Parliament recently hosted Maryam Rajavi, at the very moment when Iran was militarily confronting Israel. "For two decades, our movement has advocated a third way for the Iranian problem: the solution lies neither in appeasement of the mullahs, nor in war, nor in military intervention. It lies in democratic change achieved by the Iranian people and their resistance," she stated before numerous European parliamentarians. This growing interest reflects a new willingness to no longer ignore the democratic aspirations of the Iranian people.

The NCRI proposes a 10-point program that notably includes the establishment of a provisional government and the organization of free elections within six months of the regime's fall. This plan represents a clear political alternative, based on the abolition of the death penalty, freedom of expression, and an end to the economic domination of the Revolutionary Guards.

A Free Iran, an Opportunity for Global Balance:

The fall of the Iranian theocratic regime would not only be a victory for Iranians, but also a stabilizing factor for the Middle East and beyond. An Iran free from systemic corruption, respectful of fundamental rights, and at peace regionally would represent a historic turning point. As Gérard Vespierre emphasizes in "2025, A Major Turning Point in Tehran," the time has come for the international community to actively support this transition.

The Iranian regime is at a crossroads. Challenged internally and weakened externally, it could be replaced by a democratic alternative led by organized and recognized forces. More than ever, Iran's destiny, which is an international matter, lies in the hands of its own people: its liberation could be the key to a new and lasting balance in the Middle East.